[Market] 2018 China industrial robot market performance forecast
According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of industrial robots in China in May 2018 was 13,659 sets per set, up 35.1% compared with the same period last year. The cumulative output in January-May was 6,671 sets per set, up 33.7% compared with the same period last year. But in the first quarter of the listed robot-related enterprises, about one-third of the 30 companies with a high proportion of robot-related businesses experienced a decline in revenue. Most of the other companies saw revenue growth of 20-40%. Only three of them exceeded this category (Estun 124%, VMTDF 226%, HGZN 148%).
Can the domestic robot industry reproduce the development trend in 2017? How will this year's growth be?
Industry development faces two major problems
At present, there are still some deficiencies in the dynamic algorithm of domestic controllers, which will affect the performance of heavy-duty robots. However, domestic robots mainly focus on low-end applications, so few companies have enough strength to research and develop in the field of controllers, which to a certain extent will restrict the development of domestic robots.
It is noteworthy that the recent expansion of YASKAMA has been completed, which is a landmark event in the robotics industry. Since 2017, a number of internationally renowned robot ontology enterprises have made it clear that they will expand their production, which is expected to be completed in the second half of this year. The extrusion of foreign-funded enterprises on the development environment of Chinese robot enterprises will soon take shape.
Price decline will be long trend
At present, the growth of the robot industry has basically entered the right track, but the price of industrial robot products will continue to go down, because most of the current mainstream manufacturers’ prices have not dropped. Generally speaking, whether domestic enterprises or foreign-funded enterprises, the decline in product prices will continue for a long time. Those enterprises that still exist in the industry are mostly enterprises that can grasp this trend.
The key to reducing the price is to grasp the supply chain, because controlling the supply chain is related to whether an enterprise can better control the cost of products, and then affect its own survival. This is even more important for Non-listed companies, because if energy costs are not effectively controlled, the capital chain will soon break.
Some non-listed companies launch cost-effective products in the market, the impact on the market is still relatively large. However, listed companies have the capital not to participate in the price war. The main reason is that robots do not account for a high proportion in their business, especially in ontology manufacturing. Therefore, for listed companies, price reduction will not be the primary strategy of market competition.
"Dispute between China and foreign countries" opens again
GGII believes that the so-called "second round competition" between foreign enterprises and domestic manufacturers has begun, but the battlefield will no longer be the original automobile manufacturing industry, because the automobile manufacturing is the most advanced foreign enterprises to enter, and its technology is more advanced in China. The new battlefield will shift from the automotive industry to the general industry, which is a situation where both opportunities and challenges coexist for domestic manufacturers: in the general industrial field, the advantages of foreign capital are not obvious, while domestic manufacturers have localized services and know more about some processes than foreign enterprises.
But from the technical point of view, this advantage is also accompanied by challenges: foreign-funded enterprises response speed and technology iteration speed is fast, can quickly seize the industry leader to develop more suitable products and solutions. But this kind of quality and ability, at present the domestic manufacturer still does not have, therefore has certain disadvantage to the domestic manufacturer.
The growth rate tends to be stable.
Between 2018 and 2020, it will be difficult for the robotics industry to reproduce the explosive growth of 2017, more in a relatively smooth manner. However, this does not mean that there will be no enterprise exit in this period, however there are many reasons for the exit. For example, ontological enterprises will be affected by their own funds to a large extent, especially those enterprises that do both ontology and integration, their cash flow is relatively tight, and the financing capacity of such enterprises is relatively weak.
In the following period, both the financial market and the capital market are not as good as before, capital will enter a special period, so financing difficulties will continue: on the one hand, these enterprises mainly operate hardware, on the other hand, their core advantages are not obvious, in the case of insufficient volume, cannot be introduced. It's also hard to convince investors that listed companies are less attractive than software vendors or start-ups.
Therefore, the way out for ontology manufacturers is to open up and protect the supply chain well, press down the price, and control the cost well, so as to persist until the end of this period. After the whole industry is washed out, the products and markets of the enterprises left behind are polished to a certain extent, and they can also better enter the next stage.
GGII believes that before 2020, because there are still many uncertainties affecting the survival of many enterprises in the robotics industry, so the second half of 2018 will continue to maintain the main tone of stable growth, growth rate of 30% - 40%.
This article is reproduced from Ringier industrial resource network.
Release date: 10:06 am June 26, 2018